11 Comments

Elon is an incredible business person, and it's safe to say that his wealth proofs this.

Everything he builds is successfully, he knows how to focus on the key issues and solves them, while at the same time he approaches his companies as any other business, reduce costs to increase profit.

This simple thing is one of the keys to Elon's success with most of his companies.

Expand full comment

Excellent insights. Especially how most of the SpaceX valuation is likely due to Starlink, not launchers. I can’t help but see a NASA and space exploration perspective here, the business we see in the headlines vs. the real money. Google comes to mind. The day-to-day visible part of Google is search, but that’s just a front for a business that’s about advertising. And the real business lies below that, a business core all about selling peoples personal data. Quite possibly NASA “search,” exploring space beyond Earth, with partners like SpaceX, ends up being a front, critically linked to many less visible, underlying layers, the money-makers of bits and bytes.

Expand full comment

Thank you for the write up. I am new to the business of LEO Satellite Communications so I really appreciate how clear and easy this is to understand. I’ve become very interested after hearing all the buzz/euphoria about $ASTS. Despite Starlink’s obvious advantages can anyone explain why $ASTS has been able to garner so many strategic partnerships with large telcos….seemingly more than Starlink?

Expand full comment

Thank you for the kind words Gretchen, I appreciate the feedback

For direct-to-device (the category of satcom where Starlink and AST (and also other companies) are attempting to connect directly to unmodified phones and other terrestrial devices), I wouldn't necessarily say Starlink has an advanage. The key reason being that Starlink only plans to enable text, calls, and maybe email-level internet connectivity vs AST planning to enable 4G/5G and video-streaming quality of service; this is largely due to different satellite designs (AST purpose-built for D2D vs Starlink attempting after optimizing for fixed internet). Starlink is also a competitor to the telcos in the fixed satcom market (thus representing a frenemy at best) vs AST only looking to help them grow their business

This is also a very broad topic--I didn't want to make my post any longer than it already is!

Expand full comment

Thank you so much. This is very helpful.

Expand full comment

How much rural locations is Starlink covering vs traditional internet service? I'm askinkg because the Biden plan didn't benefit Starlink.

Expand full comment

So lame that Starlink had the subsidy for rural deployment revoked!

Based on speed test data, it looks like 84% of their US subscribers are "rural" (as defined by the FCC), which is ~1.2M of their 1.4M US subscribers (per FCC filings)

speedtest data - https://www.ookla.com/articles/us-satellite-performance-q3-2023

subscribers number - https://www.pcmag.com/news/how-far-can-starlink-go-growth-for-spacexs-satellite-internet-slows-in

Expand full comment

Great piece of work, Case. The this time is different promise is very interesting - I have something to say about it in one of my next pieces.

Expand full comment

I look forward to reading it then!

Expand full comment

Excellent article. Didn't see talk of T-Mobile direct to phone tech a d business?

Expand full comment

Thanks TK. Yes, unfortunately I had to draw the line somewhere with where this post would go - direct to device unfortunately didn't make the cut!

Expand full comment