Appreciate the comprehensive article! I'll be bookmarking this for reference!
One thought on IRDM - They've mentioned in many earnings calls and interviews that while SpaceX is eating into their revenue for broadband, that's not really their focus. Maybe it wont last, but there are maritime mandates that services like IRDM's must serve as a backup to Starlink.
Other things working for the business:
- The Satelles acquisition to solidify their position in the PNTS market.
- You could argue that their use of L band is a differentiator (moat?).
- The last round of buybacks at around $27.50 sent a clear signal to the market that the business felt that they were undervalued at the time. A $500M buyback program thru 2027 for a $3B company isn't nothing!
Granted, you're buying IRDM for a different reason than LUNR. This one's not "going to the moon," but I think at these prices that there's market beating potential in the next 5 years if the company stays fiscally responsible and continues to cannibalize itself.
One narrative has that only the gov't buys space observation data, do you see that continuing? those companies growing? E.g the government asking for more data, non-government enterprises asking for more data?
Broadly governments are the primary buyers of EO data, and yes I see that continuing. There is also the trend of sovereign space, where countries without a strong history of operating in space want to own their own satellites, but don't have the in-country expertise to do so, which is driving government procurement of commercial EO satellites
Appreciate the comprehensive article! I'll be bookmarking this for reference!
One thought on IRDM - They've mentioned in many earnings calls and interviews that while SpaceX is eating into their revenue for broadband, that's not really their focus. Maybe it wont last, but there are maritime mandates that services like IRDM's must serve as a backup to Starlink.
Other things working for the business:
- The Satelles acquisition to solidify their position in the PNTS market.
- You could argue that their use of L band is a differentiator (moat?).
- The last round of buybacks at around $27.50 sent a clear signal to the market that the business felt that they were undervalued at the time. A $500M buyback program thru 2027 for a $3B company isn't nothing!
Granted, you're buying IRDM for a different reason than LUNR. This one's not "going to the moon," but I think at these prices that there's market beating potential in the next 5 years if the company stays fiscally responsible and continues to cannibalize itself.
One narrative has that only the gov't buys space observation data, do you see that continuing? those companies growing? E.g the government asking for more data, non-government enterprises asking for more data?
Broadly governments are the primary buyers of EO data, and yes I see that continuing. There is also the trend of sovereign space, where countries without a strong history of operating in space want to own their own satellites, but don't have the in-country expertise to do so, which is driving government procurement of commercial EO satellites